Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Uruguay
  • Estonia
  • Malaysia
  • Cuba

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,299$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(646 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,221.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,221.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(25 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(105.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-06-20

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,243$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,483.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,483.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(528 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,911.3}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,911.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $387$ on 2020-06-20

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $238,275$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,763.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,763.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,610$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,431.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(33,431.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,212$ on 2020-06-20

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,255,119$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.72 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,175,960.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,175,960.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $119,719$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,413.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(115,413.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,517,940$ on 2020-06-20

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $304,580$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{296,456.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.7)}}\) (asimptote \(296,456.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,674$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,601.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(40,601.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $260,587$ on 2020-06-20

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,883.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 84.7)}}\) (asimptote \(68,883.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(733 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,934.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,934.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-20

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $190,670$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{180,378.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(180,378.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,895$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,595.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,595.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,166$ on 2020-06-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Uruguay recovered 94%
Estonia recovered 89%
Malaysia recovered 89%
Cuba recovered 82%
Italy recovered 80%
Lithuania recovered 76%
Singapore recovered 64%
Djibouti recovered 60%
Hungary recovered 55%
Sri Lanka recovered 51%
Uganda recovered 50%
Kuwait recovered 49%
Portugal recovered 48%
Qatar recovered 45%
United Arab Emirates recovered 27%
Lebanon recovered 27%
Tajikistan recovered 23%
Algeria recovered 22%
Canada recovered 18%
Belarus recovered 18%
Paraguay recovered 11%
Russia recovered 5%

Uruguay⮸

Population $3,473,730$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $859$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(290 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{837.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(837.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 26.1)}}\) (asimptote \(23.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19$ on 2020-06-20

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,981$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(598 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,856.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,856.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(24.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $154$ on 2020-06-20

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,556$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,034.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,034.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(55.7 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 17.6)}}\) (asimptote \(115.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $289$ on 2020-06-20

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,309$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(563 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,151.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,151.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(26.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(83.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $153$ on 2020-06-20