Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,299$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(646 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,221.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,221.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(25 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(105.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,243$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,483.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,483.0\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(528 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,911.3}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,911.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $387$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $238,275$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(6.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,763.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,763.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,610$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(7.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,431.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(33,431.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,212$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,255,119$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.72 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,175,960.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,175,960.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $119,719$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,413.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(115,413.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,517,940$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $304,580$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(4.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{296,456.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.7)}}\) (asimptote \(296,456.0\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $42,674$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(7.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,601.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(40,601.2\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $260,587$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,883.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 84.7)}}\) (asimptote \(68,883.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(733 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,934.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,934.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $190,670$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(5.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{180,378.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(180,378.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,895$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,595.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,595.6\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,166$ on 2020-06-20